Archive for February, 2010
Pay a little now or more later: deficit crisis won’t go away without pain
OTTAWA – Hospital lineups, federal-provincial squabbles, crumbling infrastructure, a military starved of equipment, and stagnating living standards.
That may sound like a description of Canada in the mid-1990s as the then-Liberal government struggled with deficits and debt that were swallowing 36 cents out of every taxpayer dollar just to pay the interest.
But it may also describe the country in a few years, say analysts who have looked at the long-term implications of Canada’s fiscal gap as the country’s baby boomers retire.
And many believe Finance Minister Jim Flaherty should start planning how to head-off the train wreck in Thursday’s federal budget, although they doubt he will. Flaherty continues to insist that economic growth and limiting government spending increases will eventually eliminate the deficit.
“So far, the government has basically said there isn’t a problem,” said Scott Clark, a former deputy minister of finance.
“The thing about demographics is that they are pretty reliable because you can’t change fertility rates overnight. You cannot deny the reality that it’s coming.”
Parliamentary budget officer Kevin Page laid out the broad outlines of the dilemma confronting the Conservative government – and by extension provinces – a week ago. Over the next 40 years, the ratio of retirees to workers will go from one in five to one in two, decimating government revenues and increasing health-care and other social costs.
The current annual deficit of $56 billion, caused mainly by a weak economy, will give way to a permanent one of between $20 and $40 billion in as little as five years, experts predict. And that shortfall would go on year after year even when the economy is operating at full strength. There’s no telling how big annual deficits could reach during future downturns.
Taken to its logical conclusion, in seven decades, Canada’s debt overhang could grow to 350 per cent the size of the entire annual economy. By way of comparison, it’s about 34 per cent now.
It won’t get to that point – Canada would be bankrupt long before and no one would be lending it money.
The question is: what are Canadians prepared to do and when to stop it?
TD chief economist Don Drummond hopes the Tories don’t repeat the mistakes of the 1970s and 1980s, when politicians assured Canadians that economic growth would solve the problem.
“The experience of the ’60s and ’70s and ’80s shows it is very easy to let this slip away from you,” Drummond said.
“It’s not that there’s a sign that gets flashed on some particular day that you have transferred from a cyclical (temporary) problem to a structural (permanent) problem and you are not coming back.”
Drummond was at Finance when successive ministers, much like today, argued that growth and a little trimming of spending would take care of the problem.
It never did. It just kept adding to the debt load until it became so heavy – 68 per cent of the economy – that the International Monetary Fund told Canada to get its act together.
Drummond and Clark say Canadians may have already forgotten how painful reining in the deficit was then – and that was with demographics working in the government’s favour.
The long hospital lineups and waiting lists of the ’90s were caused when then-finance minister Paul Martin cut transfers to provinces for such things as health-care and post-secondary education. The military was set back 10 years, starved of funding, personnel and equipment.
Other government programs were slashed, including the size of the public service.
Then-industry minister John Manley has talked about losing a quarter of his staff, including some neighbours and friends.
And the government raised taxes.
“In one fell swoop in 1995, the government did what it should have done over a 20-year time frame. If they had done it over 20 years, it wouldn’t have been so bad,” said Drummond.
Some agencies have already begun to offer advice to Flaherty on how he can keep history from repeating at some date in the future. The C.D. Howe Institute has advanced a menu of choices, including reducing the civil service, cutting military spending, and – most controversial – freezing transfer rates to provinces.
Others, such as economist Dale Orr, have argued that raising the GST back to seven per cent would solve a big part of the problem.
To Clark, the issue is that Canadians must decide what they want from government. Transferring costs from Ottawa to the provinces won’t save taxpayers money – only where they send the cheque.
“Canadians are going to have to get used to living with a little less or paying more for what they want,” he said.
While nation celebrates his former pupil, dad seeks word on missing son in Haiti
MONTREAL – A man who once oversaw a stable of budding Olympians – including new national hero Joannie Rochette – now feels ignored by the Canadian government in his own darkest hour.
Ralph Bitton says he’s being snubbed in his almost daily request for details about the search for his son’s body in Haiti.
Alexandre Bitton is believed to be among the last two Canadians whose bodies have yet to be recovered from the Hotel Montana, a Port-au-Prince destination that was popular with foreigners.
His father wonders if the glamour of the Olympics is distracting the government from its more dour duties.
He watched with pride the courageous bronze-medal skating performance of Rochette, which earned her a celebratory written statement from the Prime Minister’s Office.
But he wonders why he has to struggle to get a simple email from the Canadian government about the recovery of his son.
“It’s almost pitiful to treat people like this,” he said. “We have no news about our son, and we don’t know what’s happening at the site apart from what we hear from strangers.”
Ralph Bitton has still managed to watch the Olympics, and still finds solace in seeing his former students on the international stage.
He headed a successful sports-study program at a Montreal high school, where students who excelled in the classroom and in athletics were able to train during the school day.
He was responsible for balancing the school and training schedules for some of Canada’s best athletes. They include champion diver Alexandre Despatie, short-track speed skater Olivier Jean, and Rochette, who overcame her own tragedy to deliver an inspiring performance in figure skating.
That same program at Antoine-de-St-Exupery high school also included Canada’s Olympic hockey goalie, Roberto Luongo, although Bitton wasn’t running the program back then.
The Bitton family is now seeking out information about the Haiti search wherever it can find it.
The detailed briefings by the U.S. State Department on efforts to locate American citizens are a source of envy.
The Bittons have sent letters to several Canadian politicians, including the prime minister and Foreign Affairs Minister Lawrence Cannon, but they’re still waiting for something beyond a routine reply.
“When I find information elsewhere and say, ‘Can you confirm it?’ they say, ‘Yes we can,”‘ said Jocelyne Bitton.
“They supposedly do that to protect me. But I don’t need protection, I need information.”
The Bittons have been liaising with other families anxiously awaiting information about loved ones lost within the rubble of the hotel.
They also follow a Facebook group that provides running commentary about the recovery operations.
The Bittons are not the first family to complain about the Hotel Montana recovery effort. In the immediate aftermath of the earthquake, several others criticized search efforts they said were disorganized.
Canada’s Foreign Affairs Department has a policy of not commenting on individual cases, for privacy reasons.
But government officials say they remain in regular contact with families as recovery teams and forensic experts continue the painstaking task of identifying victims.
“With the end of search-and-rescue efforts, emphasis has shifted to recovery and identification of the deceased,” said Dana Cryderman, a spokesperson for the department.
“This is a complex process which can require some time.”
Alexandre Bitton was only in Haiti reluctantly, fretting that his business trip would cause him to miss a family vacation.
His parents have come to terms with the likelihood that he won’t be found alive. They’re now focused on the hope of one day burying their son.
In the meantime, Ralph Bitton has cast an eye on Vancouver, where another family is suffering. He’s proud of the way Joannie Rochette handled her own personal pain.
“The death of her mother was difficult for her but she nevertheless succeeded in overcoming that to win a medal,” he said.
“It was remarkable, but it doesn’t surprise me at all because she was really a determined girl.”
Bitton just hopes someone in Ottawa might think of his family, too.
“If no one pushes them, they don’t do anything,” he said. “That’s what I find unfortunate about our political leaders.”
Return of iconic robotic arm being discussed by NASA, Canadian Space Agency
MONTREAL – It has travelled thousands of kilometres in space, repaired orbiting satellites, unclogged astronauts’ toilets, and helped build the International Space Station.
Now the Canadarm appears set to come home.
The Canadian Press has learned that NASA and the Canadian Space Agency have been working to bring home the original Canadarm, which first flew into space in 1981.
Discussions aimed at repatriating the iconic robotic limb have been going on between the U.S. and Canadian agencies for more than a year.
The conversations come as the U.S. closes its space-shuttle program, and seeks to divest assets from those missions.
NASA has used five versions of the Canadarm over the years.
“The Canadian Government retained ownership of the original Canadarm and NASA and the Canadian Space Agency are currently discussing its return,” said NASA spokeswoman Katherine Trinidad.
The Canadian Space Agency declined to comment when asked what it planned to do with the 15-metre, 411-kilo tool.
NASA explains that the original arm flew on the Space Shuttle Columbia and has rotated with the other arms to fly on numerous shuttle missions over the years.
The Canadarms are removed after every space flight and refitted on different shuttles, as necessary.
The space arm was deployed for the first time on Nov. 13, 1981, when it was lifted out of Columbia’s cargo bay by American astronaut and pilot Richard Truly.
“The arm is out and it works beautifully,” Truly reported to Mission Control at the time. “Its movements are much more flexible than they appeared during training simulations.”
Paul Cabot, the curator of the Canadian Air and Space Museum in Toronto, said his museum is also very interested in acquiring that piece of aerospace history.
“We’ve contacted NASA, we’ve contacted the CSA, we’re waiting to see what happens,” he said.
He notes that the Canadarm was built in nearby Brampton, Ont.: “We would like to bring it back to its origin and celebrate its history.”
The first Canadarm was designed, developed and built by a division of Spar Aerospace in Brampton, which was later acquired by MacDonald, Dettwiler and Associates Ltd.
The Conservative government blocked the 2008 sale of MDA to a U.S. firm, Alliant Techsystems.
On its website, the Canadian Space Agency says five Canadarms were built and delivered to NASA between April 1981 and August 1993.
Two were destroyed in the tragic explosions of the shuttles Columbia and Challenger.
Canadarms are currently being used on the three U.S. shuttles still in service – Discovery, Atlantis and Endeavour.
But NASA is retiring the shuttles this fall and they have already been put up for sale.
The shuttle Discovery has already been promised to the Smithsonian Institute’s National Air and Space Museum, in Washington, D.C.
The two others, Atlantis and Endeavour, are up for grabs, but only American museums or schools are allowed to bid for them.
Trinidad notes that with one arm going back to Canada, one of the shuttles will be left without an arm.
About 20 applications had been received by the Feb. 19 deadline.
NASA recently slashed the price tag on the soon-to-be-retired shuttles from US$42 million to US$28.8 million.
A Canadian government official said he was unaware of NASA’s plans for the shuttles or any of their parts.
One Canadarm remains on the space station.
Eastern Ont. police seek driver in military uniform in hit-and-run investigation
TRENTON, Ont. – Provincial police in eastern Ontario are looking for a driver in a military uniform as they investigate a hit and run.
A 14-year-old girl was walking along a crosswalk Friday night in Trenton when she was hit.
Police are asking for the public’s help in tracking down the driver of a burgundy truck.
The girl suffered minor injuries.
Be proud, Canada, of Vancouver Winter Games, says IOC president
VANCOUVER, B.C. – Be proud, Canada.
As he prepares to declare the 2010 Winter Olympics officially closed, the president of the International Olympic Committee says not just the host city, but the entire country, have reason to celebrate.
Promises made to the IOC when the Games were awarded to Vancouver and Whistler, B.C., in 2003 have been met and exceeded, Jacques Rogge said.
“You can be proud,” Rogge said in an interview Saturday with The Canadian Press.
“We are very thankful for the way the whole nation has embraced these Games.”
Rogge said while Vancouver has taken on the Games in a way that’s “unheard of in the Olympic movement,” he does consider them as belonging to all of Canada.
That the Games, in turn, have become such a catalyst for national unity is not surprising, said Rogge.
“This underlying pride to be a Canadian has maybe not many ways to express itself,” he said. “The Games gives the possibility to express this deep feeling.”
But while the feverish enthusiasm with which Canadians have greeted the Games has impressed Rogge, he said Canadians have never let it get out of hand.
He said he saw this first hand when crowds still cheered for the Swedish women’s gold medal in curling even though it was the Canadian team they beat for the victory.
“The public is absolutely not chauvinistic,” he said.
“The Canadian public is absolutely first class.”
At the same time, Rogge admitted, the behaviour of some Canadian athletes hasn’t always been.
Canada’s women’s hockey players who drank beer and smoked cigars on the ice after their gold medal win over the U.S. should have thought twice, Rogge said.
“I think they realize that with hindsight they should have behaved differently,” he said.
“But one should not blow this out of proportion. They have expressed their regrets.”
He added that he considers the matter closed.
Rogge said he doesn’t see a conflict between the nationalism that’s become attached to the Olympics and the Olympic charter itself.
“The Olympic Games are competitions between athletes in individual or team events and not between countries,” reads the charter, the document that governs the Games.
But while the IOC itself may not rank countries according to medals, everyone else does.
Plus, host nations now use the Games for means that take them far beyond simple athletic competitions.
When discussing the 2014 Winter Games, the head of the Sochi organizing committee focuses far more on the opportunity to introduce the world to a new Russia than he does on athletic achievement.
“The Olympic project is the greatest-ever catalyst to accelerate all the processes in society,” said Dmitry Chernyshenko.
“Economical, social, environmental. This is great that we are doing it so fast, we are jumping into the future.”
For Canadians, how athletes performed at the Games was low on the list of priorities. In a Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey, those polled ranked being safe, on budget and problem-free as the top three qualities required for success.
But the fact that government funding is a requirement both for staging a Games, and in many cases developing athletes, means the two end up being a full nation-building exercise, said Rogge.
“Part of the Own The Podium was funded by public money and this is a worthwhile phenomenon,” he said.
“Many countries consider sport as a very important part of social aspect of their country but also there is a kind of identity linked to that.”
Guzzling Games? Maybe, but police say Olympic partiers pose no problem
VANCOUVER, B.C. – The morning after a good party, that’s usually when the waves of regret roll in.
For the past few weeks, mild-mannered Vancouver has been transformed into a rollicking, shrieking street soiree. But if the party’s hosts are feeling any pangs of remorse as the reception winds down, they’re certainly not showing it.
In a city that has not historically encouraged communal carousal, police, city officials and Vancouver tourism boosters have been united in singing the praises of a Games get-together gone right.
“Thus far, the crowds, while very large, have for the most part been exceptionally good,” Vancouver police spokesperson Lindsey Houghton told The Canadian Press via email.
But if out-of-towners were to gather an impression of Vancouver during these Olympics based on media reports, they might come away with a different view: that Canada has played host to the guzzling Games.
A New York Times blog post painted a picture of a downtown lined with drunks screaming and yelling, occasionally fighting with one another and urinating in public. A Globe and Mail columnist referred to Granville Street (the unofficial heart of the party) as a “River of Vomit.”
And an ESPN.com blogger compared the street scene to a Canadian Mardi Gras except, the author noted, “replace women flashing their breasts with fans displaying their hockey jerseys and Canada Olympic jackets.”
“I’ve covered nine Olympics and I’ve never seen anything like Vancouver this past week,” read the post. “Things started off relatively restrained but every night the outdoor party has swelled, with thousands upon thousands more fans filling the street. … I would describe it as near-riot conditions, but the fans are mostly just loud, not violent, and judging by the smell, the haze wafting down the block is definitely not tear gas.”
Pot smoke aside, this is all quite new for Vancouver – a town whose conservative liquor laws and late-night noise bylaw has precluded a reputation as a party destination.
Prior to New Year’s celebrations at the turn of the millennium, for instance, a police spokesperson memorably warned residents that partying in the streets would not be tolerated.
Now? The police are downplaying any problems they’ve had with crowd control and public intoxication.
According to police, public intoxication arrests between Feb. 12 and Friday, are up just 11 per cent from same time period in 2009, even though the city is now flush with hundreds of thousands of tipsy tourists.
“We’re facilitating a safe and celebratory atmosphere in Vancouver,” Houghton wrote.
Well, then, how about the noise of thousands of boozed-up revellers sloshing through the streets at once? Apparently, it hasn’t been much of a concern.
“Generally speaking, the number of (noise) complaints we’re getting are low,” said Will Johnston, director of licences and inspections with the City of Vancouver, in a telephone interview.
“I wouldn’t say they’re significantly high. Generally, we’re getting anywhere from 10-15 complaints a night.”
The noise threshold was extended for the Olympics from 10 p.m. to midnight, and Johnston said city officials expected worse.
“Definitely, the downtown streets are a lot noisier than pre-Olympic times … (but) I think we’re managing it well,” he said. “The number of complaints is lower than we would have expected.”
Then how about that aforementioned “River of Vomit?” Officials say they’re doing what they can.
John Williams, manager of sanitation operations for the city, says that a truck flushes the streets and laneways downtown once per night. He acknowledges litter has been a challenge – four tonnes a day – but the city has an extra 183 staffers working to keep the streets clean.
Of course, the throngs are most frenzied after men’s hockey games.
Following Canada’s semifinal win over Slovakia, a Friday night stroll along Granville was hectic, to say the least, even though liquor stores had been shuttered early in hope of preventing too much liquored-up belligerence.
A shade before midnight, a mass of whooping partiers clogged the street. The crowd was overwhelmingly young and excited.
A clearly inebriated man was collared by four police offers after flipping large juggling sticks in the middle of a crowd (“What do you think you’re doing with those things?” one of the officers asked him.)
Plumes of marijuana smoke floated through the air, a few good Samaritans broke up a fight between two lurching revellers and a pair of young women walked around with large wooden spoons, smacking strangers on their backsides.
The scene was a bit chaotic but, police insist, secure.
“Downtown Vancouver is absolutely safe for families, even late at night,” said Houghton.
Ashley Slater would agree. He brought two-year-old daughter Daphne down, nestled snugly in a stroller while the sun was up Saturday, but said he’d come down at night, too.
“(There’s) the odd beer-drinkin’ bloke that’s maybe had a couple too many, but other than that, I don’t think it’s too big of a deal,” he said.
But does the mass booze consumption complicate the matter?
“No,” said Maurice Lefebvre, a Chilliwack, B.C., native and the father of a four-year-old.
“It just means a lot of people are saying: ‘Woooo!”‘